THE LOWELL DECISION IS LOOMING!

The 2007 World Series Champions are heading into the off-season faced with a dilemma similar to that after the 2004 championship. One of their aging and most popular stars is eligible for free agency. And the decision to re-sign that player to a long term and expensive contract rests in the lap of a general manager whose formula to build a winning tradition has involved knowing when and when not to re-sign players entering their mid 30’s. All of Red Sox Nation now stands in wait wondering if Theo Epstein will make the correct decision.

The Red Sox general manager is currently making a decision on re-signing third baseman Mike Lowell to a long term contract. Lowell was a vital cog not only during the 2007 regular season, but also in the post-season. He hit .353 with two homers and drove in 15 runs in 14 post-season games and was named the MVP of the World Series. Lowell is likely to be offered a four-yr contract in the $10 - $12 million range on the open market. But, he will turn 34 years old before the regular season begins.

Epstein’s position on re-singing players entering their mid 30’s has been stated quite clearly. He just doesn’t like rolling the dice on players entering that faze of their careers. In the past he has waved goodbye to Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon. Those decisions have been considered wise choices. Yet he traded for a 37 yr-old Curt Schilling in 2003 and signed him to a contract extension. He also re-signed catcher Jason Varitek to a four-year deal prior to the 2005 season when he would turn 33. And those decisions were considered wise.

But Lowell presents a different challenge for Epstein. The third baseman is coming off of a sensational season in which he posted career highs in BA (.324) and runs driven in (120). He has made it quite clear he would like to return to Boston. But the previous three years of production for Lowell were less than desirable and certainly not worthy of a significant contract extension. With the Florida Marlins in 2004 Lowell began a second half slide at the plate that carried into the next season where he almost fell off the baseball map. He batted .236 with a mere eight homers and 58 runs batted in during 2005. The low budget Marlins were desperate to unload Lowell, his big contract and what looked like declining skills. They found takers in the Red Sox when they inquired about Josh Beckett prior to 2006. Lowell rebounded to hit .284 with 20 dingers and 80 runs driven in for Boston, but was again fading in the second half of the season. That was more indication that Lowell was in decline and probably prevented any talks of a contract extension.

Making the decision more muddled for Epstein is the fact that the Red Sox do not have a clear alternative at third base if they decide to let Lowell walk. The next Red Sox infield prospect expected to make an appearance is Jed Lowrie, who is expected to play either shortstop or second base. There is no highly touted prospect at third base in site down on the Red Sox farm. The top free-agent third baseman is Alex Rodriquez, but his cost may be to large for the Red Sox to consider. A trade is always possible, but Epstein will not part with top tier prospects easily. Nor should he. The Red Sox could also look to bring in a first baseman in either a trade or free agency and move Kevin Youkilis across the diamond to third. But Youkilis has not played third base regularly for the better part of the past two years. There are endless possibilities to replace Lowell, but no guarantees. The Red Sox would gladly like Lowell to return. However, they need him to return on their terms in which Lowell would probably have to accept a contract for less than what the open market would fetch.

Epstein is undoubtedly huddled with members of the Red Sox front office on a daily basis. Does he believe Lowell can produce at a quality level for several more years or does he look at other options? His decision is paramount with the fan base where there is a clear consensus to re-sign the WS MVP. These are the decisions that impact the future of an organization in baseball. Right now Epstein presides over an organization expected to compete for more championships in the immediate future. Will Epstein’s decision on Lowell impact those expectations of future success? Only time will tell. The recent histories of Pedro, Damon, Schilling and Varitek tell me Epstein will make the correct call. But all know an incorrect call will eventually be made. Is Lowell the decision that will go bad?

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